The grueling six-month MLB regular season ends on Sunday, and the only thing I'll bother writing about - because it's occupied much time on my brain of late - is Felix "El Rey" Hernandez, and the merits of his claim to the 2010 American League Cy Young Award.If you don't fanatically love baseball, you'll probably want to skip this one.
For those of you who don't know (or more likely, don't care) I've been running a 12-team six-keeper fantasy baseball league, known affectionately as the KNIFE PRTY (points only, bitches - I say fuck rotisserie and head-to-head) for something like 11 years, and I also happen to be a huge, die-hard, obsessed and psychopathic San Francisco Giants fan.
Last year, my team's pitching staff boasted both Tim Lincecum, one of my favorite players and the reigning two-time National League Cy Young Award winner, and Felix Hernandez, whom I've paid close attention to since he debuted as a baby-faced 19 year old in 2005. Sadly, due to roster restrictions, I could only keep one of the two starting pitchers (what, I'm going to let Hanley Ramirez and Ryan Howard go?) and I made the gut-wrenching decision to... put Lincecum back in the free agent pool and keep Hernandez. I won't go into the soul-torturing decision-making process, but let's just say, I've had no regrets.
I've also closely followed the career of one Carsten Charles Sabathia, who used to be one of favorite players before he became a soulless mercenary for the New York Yankees, because he's around my age and grew up near me in NorCal (¡209!) and I remember hearing of his exploits back when I was a baby-faced high school student. Legend has it he buzzed one of my buddies in the face when facing each other in a regional game, and as a left-handed batter facing a 6'7" and 300 pound teenager throwing 99-mph darts, with much less control than he has now... well, that's the type of story you don't forget.
Believe it or not, I've also closely followed the career of David Price, not just because I'm a baseball nerd, but because I had the pleasure of interviewing him back in 2005, when he was entering his junior year at Vanderbilt and touring with the amateur Team USA squad in New England, at the same time I was producing a documentary series, with my buddy P.J. Moynihan, about amateur baseball up in New Hampshire. He was a nice dude, and I'm glad to see he's doing so well in the big leagues.
C.C. Sabathia and David Price happen to be Felix's main competition for the AL Cy Young this year. These are some relevant statistics for all three:
Felix Hernandez
34 Starts, 6 Complete Games, 1 Shutout
249.2 Innings, 194 Hits, 80 Runs, 63 Earned Runs
17 HRs Allowed, 70 Walks, 232 Strikeouts
13 Wins, 12 Losses
2.27 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 70.5 VORP, 6.1 WAR
C.C. Sabathia
34 Starts, 2 Complete Games, 0 Shutout
237.2 Innings, 209 Hits, 92 Runs, 84 Earned Runs
20 HRs Allowed, 74 Walks, 197 Strikeouts
21 Wins, 7 Losses
3.18 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 51.6 VORP, 5.5 WAR
David Price
31 Starts, 2 Complete Games, 1 Shutout
207.2 Innings, 170 Hits, 71 Runs, 63 Earned Runs
15 HRs Allowed, 79 Walks, 187 Strikeouts
19 Wins, 6 Losses
2.73 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 54.5 VORP, 5.3 WAR
**VORP is a Baseball Prospectus created statistic that stands for VALUE OVER REPLACEMENT PLAYER and is a run-based figure that assigns a numerical positive- or negative- value for players compared to a hypothetical, AAA-level player available to all teams.
WAR is similar to VORP, but uses Wins instead of Runs as the net positive- or negative- value assigned to a player.
Looking at those metrics, Felix has a sizable advantage over Sabathia and Price in every one, except Wins and Losses.
Let's also make note of this... with three days of games left in the regular season:
Seattle Mariners have scored 507 runs (Last in AL and lowest figure in over 40 years)
New York Yankees have scored 843 runs (1st in AL)
Tampa Bay Rays have scored 795 runs (3rd in AL)
Hernandez has received 3.5 runs of support per game, Sabathia has received 6.6 runs of support per game and Price has received 5.3 runs of support per game.
Now, does anyone wonder why Hernandez has a mediocre 13-12 record?
I'll just say, I discount Price from this race early on because he's made fewer starts and has pitched 42+ and 30 less innings than Hernandez and Sabathia. While Price has had a wonderful season, that's a huge innings disparity that his peripheral stats can't make up for in the Cy Young conversation.
Hernandez went 3-0 with a 0.35 ERA against the Yankees, the highest scoring team in baseball, while Sabathia went 3-0 with a 0.86 ERA against the Mariners, the worst offensive team to take field since my parents were children.
Hernandez went 5-1 with a 0.63 ERA against the AL East, a division that boasted the 1st, 2nd, 3rd and 6th highest scoring teams in the AL, while Sabathia went 8-3 with a 3.41 ERA against the same division, boosted by a 5-1 mark against the Orioles, whom he made 6 starts.
12 of Sabathia's 21 wins came against the Mariners, Orioles, Athletics and Orioles who rank 14th, 13th, 11th and 9th in runs scored.
7 of Hernandez's 13 wins came against the Yankees, Red Sox, Rangers and Twins who rank 1st, 2nd, 4th and 5th in runs scored.
People want to give Sabathia extra credit for pitching his team through the rigors of a pennant race, but what about the pressure of pitching for a team that scored two or fewer runs in 15 of 34 starts? The Mariners scored 0 runs in 7 of Hernandez's last 12 starts.
By every measure known to man, Felix Hernandez has been the best pitcher in the American League. I don't write this to denigrate either Sabathia or Price, who've both had fantastic years and will have the pleasure of pitching for their teams in the postseason while chasing a World Series title... but there is no doubt in my mind that no one has pitched better than Felix Hernandez during the 2010 regular season, and only an adherence to outdated modes of thinking will result in anyone but El Rey winning the American League Cy Young Award.
